54-Variety Futures Alpha Matrix & 47 Price Action Setups Encyclopedia
Empirically validated across 54 domestic commodity and equity index futures continuous contracts (2015–2026) under strict bar-by-bar causality with zero lookahead bias. Explore setups ranked by empirical Profit Factor, inspect varieties by champion setups, or calculate real-time Half-Kelly position sizing via the interactive Trader’s Equation calculator.
54 Futures Varieties × 47 Price Action Setups Expectancy Matrix
Click any row to load its empirical Win Rate & Payoff Ratio into the right-hand Trader’s Equation calculator.
| Price Action Setup | Category | Profit Factor | Win Rate | Payoff (R:R) | Trades | Top Symbol & Guide |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tight Channel Progression → pa-tight-channel | Breakout & Channel | 2.52 | 36.7% | 4.02:1 | 90 | |
| Consecutive Trend Bars Impulse → pa-consecutive-bars | Breakout & Channel | 1.81 | 36.7% | 3.13:1 | 30 | |
| Outside Bar Expansion (ob) → pa-outside-bar | Key Bar | 1.58 | 37.3% | 2.55:1 | 1,377 | |
| Barbed-Wire Congestion Breakout → pa-barbed-wire-breakout | Breakout & Channel | 1.55 | 38.0% | 2.50:1 | 17,035 | |
| Breakout Test (BT) → pa-breakout-test | Pullback | 1.55 | 37.2% | 2.56:1 | 10,112 | |
| Trading Range Buy-Low-Sell-High → pa-scalp-range | Climax & Range | 1.54 | 38.0% | 2.50:1 | 26,696 | |
| V-Bottom / V-Top Reversal → pa-v-reversal | Reversal | 1.53 | 38.4% | 2.44:1 | 22,906 | |
| Transition Bar Setup → pa-transition-bar | Key Bar | 1.52 | 38.2% | 2.43:1 | 37,653 | |
| Parabolic Wedge Climax → pa-parabolic | Climax & Range | 1.52 | 39.0% | 2.38:1 | 6,873 | |
| Measured-Move Pennant Breakout → pa-measured-move-pennant | Breakout & Channel | 1.51 | 38.8% | 2.38:1 | 54,180 | |
| Late-Trend Pullback Scalp → pa-late-entry-pullback | Pullback | 1.51 | 38.2% | 2.43:1 | 39,217 | |
| 20-EMA Gap Bar Pullback → pa-ema-gap-bar | Pullback | 1.49 | 37.7% | 2.39:1 | 3,795 | |
| Morning Star Bottom Reversal → pa-morning-star | Reversal | 1.47 | 37.1% | 2.38:1 | 3,715 | |
| Micro Trendline Break Pullback → pa-micro-trend-line | Pullback | 1.47 | 37.9% | 2.40:1 | 3,413 | |
| Evening Star Top Reversal → pa-evening-star | Reversal | 1.45 | 37.9% | 2.34:1 | 3,442 | |
| Double-Trap Stop-Hunt Reversal → pa-double-trap | Reversal | 1.43 | 37.1% | 2.42:1 | 5,729 | |
| Three-Pushes Wedge Reversal → pa-three-pushes-wedge | Reversal | 1.35 | 35.1% | 2.47:1 | 96,295 | |
| Deep 4-Leg Bear Pullback (L4) → pa-pullback-low4 | Pullback | 1.33 | 34.1% | 2.42:1 | 4,880 | |
| Deep 4-Leg Bull Pullback (H4) → pa-pullback-high4 | Pullback | 1.31 | 33.7% | 2.41:1 | 5,293 | |
| Wedge Bull Flag Pullback (H3) → pa-pullback-high3 | Pullback | 1.14 | 31.8% | 2.35:1 | 1,445 | |
| Measured-Move Continuation Flag → pa-measured-move-flag | Breakout & Channel | 1.07 | 29.3% | 2.48:1 | 11,374 | |
| Major Trend Reversal (MTR) → pa-mtr | Reversal | 1.05 | 27.9% | 2.47:1 | 2,761 | |
| First-Entry Bull Pullback (H1) → pa-pullback-high1 | Pullback | 1.03 | 29.1% | 2.41:1 | 3,256 | |
| Wedge Bear Flag Pullback (L3) → pa-pullback-low3 | Pullback | 1.03 | 30.1% | 2.26:1 | 1,255 | |
| Channel Trendline Overshoot → pa-overshoot | Climax & Range | 1.01 | 28.0% | 2.44:1 | 2,238 | |
| Broad Channel Swing → pa-broad-channel | Breakout & Channel | 1.00 | 28.5% | 2.46:1 | 55,904 | |
| Head & Shoulders Reversal → pa-head-shoulders | Reversal | 1.00 | 28.4% | 2.45:1 | 6,679 | |
| Failed Breakout Reversal (FBO) → pa-failed-breakout | Reversal | 0.99 | 27.9% | 2.45:1 | 6,142 | |
| Breakout Pullback (BP) → pa-breakout-pullback | Pullback | 0.98 | 26.7% | 2.60:1 | 9,787 | |
| Key-Level Reversal Signal Bar → pa-reversal-bar | Key Bar | 0.96 | 28.0% | 2.38:1 | 13,039 | |
| Bullish Momentum Breakout → pa-breakout-long | Breakout & Channel | 0.93 | 24.8% | 2.65:1 | 2,381 | |
| First-Entry Bear Pullback (L1) → pa-pullback-low1 | Pullback | 0.92 | 28.6% | 2.27:1 | 3,017 | |
| Wedge Channel Reversal → pa-wedge-reversal | Reversal | 0.91 | 27.6% | 2.33:1 | 10,552 | |
| Double Bottom Reversal (DB) → pa-double-bottom | Reversal | 0.87 | 25.2% | 2.38:1 | 2,814 | |
| Spike and Channel (S&C) → pa-spike-and-channel | Breakout & Channel | 0.87 | 25.3% | 2.44:1 | 672 | |
| Two-Legged Pullback (TBTL) → pa-two-legged-pullback | Pullback | 0.85 | 25.9% | 2.35:1 | 11,036 | |
| Bearish Momentum Breakdown → pa-breakout-short | Breakout & Channel | 0.85 | 25.5% | 2.44:1 | 2,395 | |
| Second-Entry Bull Pullback (H2) → pa-pullback-high2 | Pullback | 0.83 | 24.7% | 2.40:1 | 2,234 | |
| Coiled Inside Bars Breakout (ii/ioi) → pa-ii-ioi | Key Bar | 0.82 | 26.6% | 2.15:1 | 9,269 | |
| Micro-Channel Break Pullback → pa-micro-channel-break | Pullback | 0.79 | 24.6% | 2.34:1 | 4,908 | |
| Trend Resumption Breakout → pa-trend-resumption | Breakout & Channel | 0.76 | 25.5% | 2.08:1 | 2,053 | |
| Fourth-Entry Complex Pullback (4E) → pa-fourth-entry | Pullback | 0.72 | 22.8% | 2.37:1 | 72,080 | |
| Third-Entry With-Trend Setup (3E) → pa-third-entry | Pullback | 0.69 | 23.0% | 2.28:1 | 15,141 | |
| Double Top Reversal (DT) → pa-double-top | Reversal | 0.69 | 23.9% | 2.11:1 | 2,881 | |
| Second-Entry Bear Pullback (L2) → pa-pullback-low2 | Pullback | 0.69 | 23.4% | 2.23:1 | 2,127 | |
| Inside Bar Breakout (ib) → pa-inside-bar | Key Bar | 0.58 | 19.5% | 2.37:1 | 14,390 | |
| Buying / Selling Climax Exhaustion → pa-climax | Climax & Range | 0.07 | 3.1% | 1.47:1 | 1,341 |
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